The Model — Post Labor Investing

How it works: Each U.S. occupation has been scored 1 to 5 for Post-Labor Vulnerability based on AI displacement risk and consumer spending dependency. Adjust the displacement percentages below to model what happens to unemployment.

Your Assumptions

Historical Comparison

Most Affected Occupation Categories

5 Critical Vulnerability

Cashiers 3.3M workers
Retail Salespersons 3.6M workers
Fast Food & Counter Workers 3.6M workers
Customer Service Reps 2.8M workers
Data Entry Keyers 0.2M workers

4 High Vulnerability

Market Research Analysts 0.9M workers
Bookkeeping & Accounting Clerks 1.5M workers
Assemblers & Fabricators 1.6M workers
Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 2.0M workers
Retail Supervisors 1.2M workers

Methodology: Employment data from BLS Occupational Employment & Wage Statistics (OEWS), May 2024. 283 detailed occupations covering 138.8M workers (90% of total U.S. employment). Remaining 10% of employment assigned to Score 3 (Moderate). This is a scenario analysis tool, not a forecast. Employment-weighted scoring framework developed for Post Labor Investing.

AI Displacement Risk (1 to 5)

How susceptible is this occupation to replacement by AI, robotics, or automation?

Score	Label	Description
1	Very Low	Physical work in unpredictable environments, deep human interaction required. Robotics decades away at current wage points.
2	Low	Mostly physical or requires significant human judgment in variable settings. AI augments but doesn't replace.
3	Moderate	Mix of automatable and non-automatable tasks. Occupation shrinks but doesn't disappear.
4	High	Primarily routine cognitive or data-processing work. AI can handle most core tasks.
5	Very High	Highly structured, repetitive tasks. Already being actively automated by current technology.

Consumer Dependency (1 to 5)

How much does this occupation depend on continued consumer spending by employed people?

Score	Label	Description
1	Minimal	Essential services, government-funded, or demographically driven demand. Insulated from consumer spending cycles.
2	Low	Primarily B2B, infrastructure, or capital-goods oriented. Indirect consumer exposure only.
3	Moderate	Mixed exposure. Some consumer-facing, some institutional demand.
4	High	Primarily consumer-facing. Revenue directly tied to household spending.
5	Very High	Almost entirely dependent on discretionary consumer spending. Demand collapses if consumers stop spending.

Post-Labor Vulnerability (1 to 5)

The combined assessment: how exposed is this occupation to the post-labor economy transition?

Score	Label	Description
1	Resilient	Government-funded, demographically driven, or AI-complementary. Occupation likely grows or holds steady.
2	Low Vulnerability	Modest impact expected. Physical work, essential infrastructure, or roles that benefit from AI augmentation.
3	Moderate	Meaningful but manageable disruption. Occupation shrinks but doesn't disappear. Workers must adapt.
4	High	Significant job losses likely. Occupation exists but at much smaller scale.
5	Critical	Occupation could largely disappear or shrink more than 50%. Both highly automatable AND dependent on consumer spending.

Combined Score

Simple average of AI Displacement Risk, Consumer Dependency, and Post-Labor Vulnerability. Employment-weighted averages weight by headcount to show aggregate labor market exposure.

AI = AI/Automation Risk CD = Consumer Dependency PLV = Post-Labor Vulnerability Scores: ● 1 ● 2 ● 3 ● 4 ● 5

Occupation ▿	Group ▿	Employment ▿	Mean Wage ▿	AI	CD	PLV	Combined

Post-Labor Economy Displacement Scenario Model